BTC is crashing right now as I am writing this. I knew it already this morning and this is why I am two positions sizes short with 35$ already locked in as profit, stploss at 3835. Had no time to post in the morning...
I will point out the worst case sceanario here, because of the still way too bullish sentiment. I am a little scared for my fellow hodl'ers because this could get very nerve wrecking very fast...
Depending on how you draw the neckline of this SHS , you will get two different minimum targets:
2688$ and 2413$
You might think this is not too bad and an easy buy at this level. Wrong!
Because of this pattern (I don't know what it is called in english) and my elliott wave knowledge I am sure that BTC could crash way more than that. Down to 1000$ is possible in my opinion.
Does this look scary to you? it should:
Depending on how fast a crash occurs (if one occurs, there are still a few other possibilities) it could look like this:
Or even like this:
This is why you should hope for a fast drop instead of a slow one. The longer it takes, the lower BTC might go for creating a panic low. If it happens you will be able to buy STEEM for 50 cents or lower again :D which is awesome. But it could be the death of the bullish steem count....
CRASH targets are 1500$ and 1000$
I will scale up my shorts in every correction and profit from that, but most of you can't profit from BTC going down, because you can't make over the counter deals like me (it is not allowed in many countries). SO be aware of theese crash scenarios because it fits all elliott wave rules perfectly. The upper resistance line was tested two times and could not be broken. This is not a good sign, if you favor a small drop over a crash.
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If you think this to be useful information:
DISCLAIMER: I provide trading ideas using EW and Pattern analysis. The material in this post does not constitute any trading advice whatsoever. This is just the way I see the charts and what my trading ideas are. The author of this post is holding positions in this market at the time of this post.
If you make any trades after reading this post it is completely in your responsibility. I am not responsible for any of your losses. By reading this post you acknowledge and accept that.
Tell me what you think...
Have a nice day :-)
It seems the crash will accelerate soon. Already 200$ in profit locked in via stop loss ;-)
glad I catched it early
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Big correction happening. I was stopped out with 200$ profit. Looking to enter short soon again... They want to kill the short sellers and not allow them thounsands of dollars profit in one drop...
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Nice analysis. Upvoted and Resteemed! The rightward leaning Head & Shoulders often portend the most damage. I've added a minimum price down projection for the H&S. The dotted lines are my markings and the target is around $2,430 or so. I find it hard to see $1,500 but if fear surmounts, possible. I believe retrace will be in the price region of prior wave 4.
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I am honored by your resteem. Thank you!
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Sneaky Ninja attack!
You have been defended!
3.95...
To help keep my Jōki (蒸気) power strong, I rely on the support of my fellow #thealliance brethren.
woosh
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I didn't even read this yet ...but because I am thinking the exact same thing I am going to upvote it first...then read it later. I toldja there was a reason I have you on my followed list. Noooobody would say what you just said about a drop being the best medicine. I'd resteem...but I'm broke. :-)
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@joejustjoe Resteeming doesn't cost anything. It will help boost the popularity of the original post; possibly earning it more value.
Hope this helps!
Peace.
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OK, I'll try it. But the last time I tried to resteem something it turned out wet and soggy... and I like my veggies tender. :O
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Aha...took me a minute; but I get it...Re-ste -e-med...Best regards! Peace.
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I just read the meat of your theory and you gave everyone "the meat" in the first two paragraphs and made it easy to understand. If nothing else you got people "prepared." the reason for the high accolades is becuz your numbas actually match up with mine. So jot this down, this will be my target for GBTC "if" the actual BTC intial price low you mentioned of $2500...ish doesn't hold. I say GBTC will hit $346.00. I hope you are right. I want to find out how accrut my machine is. GOOGLuck! :-)
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=gbtc&x=35&y=15&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F18%2F2017&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1024&lf2=2&lf3=8&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
The next numba belowst $343 is also still "clearly" visible on that chart. That might be the "actual" GBTC target that would take BTC to sub $1500.
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Hello,
You got me as a follower from the link you left at haejin's last post. I have no crypto at this time since I've been waiting for a drop.
Do you think it's coming or will BTC shoot up?
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I would say 75% chance for an above average drop, 25% for a complex correction which will break the resistance line in the end. The next 3 days will be very interesting
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where have you cast your buy ladders ?
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I don't have a ladder yet, because i don't want to have 20- 30 small buys. I am waiting it out, counting it, waiting for volume spikes and completion patterns. I will make an update on every new development I see ...
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sounds sensible. I will look forward to the updates thanks
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Thank you for your response.
Do you know of a method of making money either way?
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there is no sure thing. My method is selling the crash, then buying low to hodl. But without elliott waves there is no other good way to determine when it is time to buy.
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100% agree with that final statement. Also can't believe you got resteemed by @haejin! Freaking SWEET! Thanks for taking your time and sharing your EW analysis
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I guess we are on the same train at this time.
I need a lot of patience you need to continue analysing the waves.
Thanks for the updates.
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So you do convert to dollars and not some alternate crypto then? Converting bitcoin to say ETH is still a losing proposition I would imagine. Converting to cashola is "s'posed to be" a taxable event ...no?
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Not sure if I understand you correctly here. I don't need to convert anything because I am holding my altcoins till the very end and I don't own any BTC anymore, because I converted the rest I had into steem.
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To me the only "effective" way to "trade" BTC would be to convert to dollars at highs and convert dollars to BTC at tradable lows. Since ALL other cryptos (cept the flavor of the week that jumps 50%+ in 1 week like Litecoin did recently) follow the path of BTC you just end up losing your gain in the price of STEEM. If you sold the recent BTC high at $4500+ and converted to STEEM you paid close to 1.50...now STEEM is at sub $1. BTC down much less. I'd rather pay the small tax on the big gain by converting to dollars. What am I missing?
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This basically what I always try to do, not just with cryptos. Buy low sell high. But for me is much easier to just trade my OTC where I can get into and out of a position in a split second if I want to. Assuring a much better price compared to buying the real thing which takes some time.
This is the difference investing to hodl and trading for quick bucks
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If volumes start picking up in bitcoin then U.S. exchange traded bitcoin tracker that trades under the symbol GBTC will likely get S.E.C. approval for options trading. I once tried to see if the shares could be shorted and no shares were available to short. I doubt they ever will be being that bitcoin price can easily make $500+ price swings in an given 3 trading day period. But, keep watching GBTC. I actually post updates on it technically...including my first update in awhile today.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@joejustjoe/7-18-17-bitcoin-tracker-gbtc-new-short-entry-here-in-my-mythical-usd1000-trading-account
I thought it was brilliant that our local elliott wave guru siad it would be better to panic if you wanted what was best for your long term bitcoin holdings...as I said it myself in that GBTC update. ew-and-patterns gets my endorsement even before today however. he's been pretty spot on with bitcoin. I wish he would just stay put with his BTC prowess and stop playing with other crypto shit actually. :-)
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As an investor I hate volatility of 2000+$ in a short time. As a trader of OTC BTC I love it!
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What OTC bitcoin tracker should I look at to play BTC? For the record I wouldn't personally enter a position one way or the other based on today's GBTC close...but what are alternatives to GBTC? Tanks.
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I personally like the bitstamp charts the most. Can't even explain why, but this is what I look at all the time
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ETF is going to open the way to manipulate crypto prices just like they do on any commodity like silver gold. Bad for cryptos.
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Bitcoin price is already manipulated by large volume buyers and sellers. It used to be that you could pretty much easily daytrade BTC on volume spikes at lows and highs. Not so much lately since the hedge funds took over. A compooter can dumpf on you ass at any given time. It all depends on the idiots determining the sell trigger.
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I'm talking about a much deeper manipulation.
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No such thing. Deeper manipulations are either signals by "the" market that price was waaaay off to the upside...or the downside. Once a bear marekt in BTC begins there won't be any coming back to highs until multi-year lows are made. Not sure that the $5K high will be taken out but BTC HODLers can at least rest assured that it "should be"...at somethime in the future. The future can start at BTC $1000 tho.
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You and haijin are my favorite ❤
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"Scary" times to the crypto market, hold strong guys :D
Thanks for sharing, allways good analysis
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If you are not looking to sell to pay for bills... and you believe in the long term of btc, then this is good news. Buy on the way down and on the way up, fast crash would be great for cheap prices!
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nobody should be looking to sell to pay for bills. Only invest what you are willing to loose.
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Well said. Thus, if price is lowering, then fantastic news for investors. Also, don't forget that you are comparing the price to fiat. 2 DIFFERENT worlds! Look at a different pair, like BCH/BTC and then BCH/ETH, almost identical.... which means, the top cryptos are holding their value against themselves. Good signal that your value is holding, but cheap to buy.
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I am not holding BTC anymore. But some other cryptos which could be hit even harder -.-
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Maybe consider BTC. It's the store of value for the cryptos. Once you've locked in profits, move it to BTC and hold it there. Old rule which seems to work well is to not invest more than 30% of your capital. So that would mean leaving 70% of your crypto worth in BTC while playing with the rest.
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It's been about an hour since you posted and it's seems we're on the rise for the last half hour. Too premature to call it a recovery? Or is this just a quick pause in the downtrend?
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It looks like wave 2 of a and should be over soon. (10min - 4h) I am buying more shorts for wave 3
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I'm right there with you! Thanks.
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Interesting post.don't stop sharing.i want to see more.
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As a new investor in Steem, it is clear that it has been tanking for a few days. It's the first time since joining Steemit a month ago, that it's dropped past the dollar mark.
I suppose it's a great time to buy, and, do as you said HODL.
Some people are projecting long-term value for STEEM. I believe it will be like the freshly cooked pasta...doneness will be determined by its sticking like glue.
I missed out on the BTC ride; so, I'm glad to be a part of the Steemit community. It would be horrible to see it go the way of BTC, and know I missed the train again.
Thanks for sharing!
Peace.
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As im little bit scapticle about your analysis.
I can see that there is a n trend for sure no one denie it. But as Bitcoin has its Huge community and its hug supporters i think it will hold at a certain level that could be around $2500 or even $2300.
But as my opinion we would see more than that.
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OMG!!!This is really a sad news ..
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the head and shoulders that you drew seems pretty accurate. I feel the same way about btc but this is a great time to stack up while it is cheap
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Spotted the head and shoulders pattern too. Nice call!
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Why is it falling in the first place. What really happened? Another exchange closing, another rumour?
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I can't tell you what reason the media will find to justify it, but I can give you my reason. Big wave 4 correction (waves)
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Didn't you said the last top was wave 5?
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yes, wave 5 of bigger wave 3.
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https://steemit.com/@slimanafassi
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No Biggie, its just digits on a computer screen lol :)
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I think fear is no longer a term used by the BTC community. This leads to smaller corrections and larger gains.
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With several hedge funds entering the market this leads to a lot bigger corrections and upmoves... just my opinion
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This is hectic. I wonder if it'll recover properly..
Upvoted and Resteemed!
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i assume you mean after it crashes not from here ?
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i have voted for you and followed you please follow me vote for me thanks,
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