Bitcoin Attempts to Climb, But US Economic Data Halts It

The world's leading cryptocurrency hits key resistance levels after the release of mixed US economic data, casting doubt on its next move.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) failed to maintain its bullish momentum on Tuesday, retreating slightly -1.12% to close at $83,643. The market's flagship cryptocurrency attempted to break above the 50- and 200-period exponential moving averages (EMAs), reaching an intraday high of $86,496, but was ultimately rejected by these significant technical barriers. The 50-period EMA stood at $85,500. The release of US economic data, which showed stagnant and slowing export and import prices, as well as deflation in imports, reflected Bitcoin's negative correlation with a stable dollar.

Bitcoin faced a harsh reality after failing to break through key moving average resistances, reacting negatively to mixed US economic data suggesting an economic slowdown and controlled inflation / TradingView

US Economic Data: An Unexpected Hurdle for Bitcoin

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index recorded a persistent contraction in May 2025, albeit less severe than expected, falling from -20 to -8.1, exceeding forecasts. This relative improvement, paradoxically, exerted selling pressure on Bitcoin due to its negative correlation with weak manufacturing data.

On the other hand, the Redbook YoY report for May 2025 revealed a slowdown in retail sales, falling from 7.2% previously to 6.6% currently. This decline suggests a cooling in consumption, which historically correlates negatively with risk assets like Bitcoin, in the face of a potential capital outflow. While consumption is slowing, it is not collapsing, giving the Fed room to maintain its stance, although markets could begin to anticipate rate cuts if the trend persists.

Foreign Trade Analysis: Stagnation and Disinflation

Export price data showed stagnation (0% monthly vs. 0.5% previously) and an annual slowdown (2.4% vs. 2.6% previously), suggesting a loss of momentum in international competitiveness, although external demand remains resilient. Regarding import prices, a monthly decline of -0.1% was recorded (vs. +0.2% previously), the first in months, indicating less inflationary pressure from external costs. Annually, imported disinflation stood at 0.9% (vs. 1.6% previously), a factor that could be welcomed by central banks like the Fed.

New York Manufacturing Index: Persistent Contraction

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for May 2025, although better than expected (-8.1 vs. forecast of -14.5 and previous reading of -20), remained in negative territory for the seventh consecutive month. This relative improvement could suggest a temporary bottom in the contraction, but with no clear recovery in sight.

Retail Sales Slowdown: Cooling Consumption

The May 2025 Redbook YoY report revealed a clear slowdown in retail sales, falling 0.6 percentage points to 6.6%. While growth remains high, the slowdown suggests a cooling in consumption, which could influence the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions.

Open Interest (OI) Contraction and ETF Capital Outflows

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin futures open interest contracted 4.97% in the last 24 hours, reaching $53.50 billion. This is the third consecutive decline in the last three days, coinciding with Bitcoin's encounter with the resistance levels of the 50- and 200-period EMAs. This reduction in liquidity suggests that Bitcoin may have found a ceiling at the aforementioned levels. However, the price pullback occurred amid low trading volume, below the 25-day average, indicating that while bears took control of the session, they lacked the strength to sustain a steeper decline.

This Bitcoin pullback coincides with a net capital outflow of $602.5 million from Bitcoin ETFs over the past week. The outflow of institutional capital has persisted since President Donald Trump's escalation of the trade war, accumulating seven consecutive sessions of net outflows. Despite this, outflow volumes have slowed since the steep outflow of $1.1 billion on February 25, 2025. Year-to-date, Bitcoin has accumulated losses of 10.23%, and overall market sentiment has remained bearish in recent weeks.

Bitcoin faced a harsh reality by failing to break through key moving average resistances, reacting negatively to mixed US economic data suggesting an economic slowdown and subdued inflation. The contraction in open interest and the persistent outflow of capital from ETFs add caution to the pShort-term outlook. Investors will be watching the evolution of macroeconomic data and signals from the Federal Reserve to determine whether this pullback is a pause before a new bullish push or the start of a deeper correction.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading is highly volatile and carries significant risks, including the total loss of your invested capital. Consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.