As US unemployment hits record highs and manufacturing contracts, the reigning cryptocurrency ignores the economic storm and ignites hopes of an assault on $100,000. Will this be the definitive breakout?
The Bitcoin price demonstrated surprising resilience this Thursday, rising 2.35% following the release of disappointing US jobs and manufacturing data. The leading cryptocurrency was trading at $96,380 at the time of this report, after reaching an intraday high of $97,424 on the Binance exchange (BTC/USDT pair). This move marks a potential breakout of the crucial resistance at $95,000, a barrier that had slowed its advance over the past week, although confirmation of this upward trend remains to be seen in the coming days.
Technically, Bitcoin is trading higher in clear bullish sentiment, consistently holding above the 50- and 200-period exponential moving averages. / TradingView
Unemployment at Record Highs: An Unexpected Boost for Bitcoin?
Recent US labor market data paints a picture of gradual deterioration. Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 241,000, far exceeding market expectations (224,000) and reaching the highest level since March 2025. This increase suggests that a growing number of workers are losing their jobs.
The trend is reinforced by Continuing Jobless Claims, which soared to 1,916,000, the highest figure since November 2021. This data underscores the difficulty the unemployed face in finding new job opportunities. The 4-week Jobless Claims Average also confirmed this trend, reaching a five-month high of 226,000.
Interestingly, some investors seem to interpret this economic weakness as a possible sign that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could be pressured to adopt a less aggressive monetary policy to stimulate growth, a historically favorable scenario for risky assets like Bitcoin in the medium term. However, the initial reaction to negative economic data is often cautious.
Shrinking Manufacturing, Rising Prices: A Complex Scenario
The April ISM Manufacturing PMI offered a similarly confusing picture. While it slightly exceeded expectations at 48.7, it still remained below the 50 threshold, indicating a continued contraction in manufacturing activity, albeit at a slightly slower pace than the 49 recorded in March.
One positive piece of data in the report was the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index, which showed expansion, rising to 46.45 from 44.7 previously. However, the worrying note came from the ISM Manufacturing Prices Index, which soared to 69.8, its highest level since June 2022, revealing persistent inflationary pressures in the supply chain. The drop in New Manufacturing Orders to 45.2 from 47.2 also raises uncertainty about future demand.
This combination of contraction in overall activity and new orders, coupled with rising prices paid by manufacturers, presents a complex economic landscape that could limit a clear directional reaction in the Bitcoin price.
Open Interest Soars: Preparing for an Assault on $100,000?
This Thursday, Bitcoin's open interest saw a notable 6.34% increase in the last 24 hours, reaching $66.42 billion. This is the highest amount recorded in the last five days, coinciding with the price rally and opening the possibility of a move toward the coveted $100,000 mark.
This significant increase in open interest confirms an injection of liquidity into the Bitcoin futures market, which has recovered considerably from the yearly low of $45.72 billion recorded on March 10. This increase suggests that more traders are betting on further price increases, possibly driven by the US tariff truce and the recent string of negative economic data on the US labor market. The economic data released so far anticipates the crucial release of non-farm payrolls this Friday.
Technical Analysis: Heading for Key Resistance?
Technically, Bitcoin is trading higher in a clear bullish sentiment, consistently holding above the 50- and 200-period exponential moving averages. Trading volume has increased slightly, surpassing the 25-day average, suggesting greater conviction behind the upward movement.
The BBP (Bull Bear Power) indicator supports this momentum, standing at 14,749 points, still far from overbought areas, indicating that the upward movement may have room to continue. If the Bitcoin price manages to consolidate above $95,000, the cryptocurrency could be on track to test the fixed resistance zone located at $100,000 in the coming days.
Bitcoin has once again demonstrated its ability to challenge traditional economic narratives. Despite US labor and manufacturing data suggesting a slowdown, the cryptocurrency is experiencing a rally, fueled by speculation about a potentially less aggressive response from the Fed and growing investor interest. Breaking through the $95,000 resistance and rising open interest open the door to the possibility of an assault on the psychological $100,000 level. However, confirmation of this bullish breakout in the coming days will be crucial to determine whether this momentum has the necessary strength to reach new highs. Investors should remain attentive to evolving macroeconomic data and price action to navigate this exciting market phase.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading is highly volatile and carries significant risks of loss of capital. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
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